Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4660 at 15:10, with a 41% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4660 Southwest	HOU 15:10	MIA 18:45	41%	10%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 07m	97%	69%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 38m	92%	65%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:43 → DAL 09:56WN 10	3h 18m Dallas	DAL 13:14 → MIA 17:08WN 1246	7h 25m	97%	59%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 35m	93%	57%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	5h 15m	85%	51%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:41 → MIA 16:42AA 2461	6h 13m	91%	50%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:52 → MIA 22:02AA 2050	8h 16m	92%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON