Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1034 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1034 HOU 06:05 → MSY 07:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1549 HOU 22:26 → MSY 23:44 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1034 Southwest	HOU 06:05	MSY 07:26	5%	1%	3.6%	no record
WN 2935 Southwest	HOU 10:28	MSY 11:49	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4995 Southwest	HOU 12:43	MSY 14:04	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 3532 Southwest	HOU 16:20	MSY 17:41	23%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 2100 Southwest	HOU 21:49	MSY 23:13	24%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 2626 Southwest	HOU 14:43	MSY 16:04	27%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 1549 Southwest	HOU 22:26	MSY 23:44	32%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON