Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4880 at 21:35, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4880 Southwest	HOU 21:35	ONT 22:58	31%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:08 → DAL 08:19WN 4	3h 41m Dallas	DAL 12:00 → ONT 13:10WN 2515	8h 02m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	9h 50m	99%	64%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779	9h 26m	95%	60%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635	6h 03m	83%	59%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:55 → ONT 19:00AA 3006	8h 14m	92%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 20:19 → DFW 21:35AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:39 → ONT 23:55AA 1695	5h 36m	70%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON