Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2108 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2108 HOU 06:10 → PHX 07:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2447 HOU 19:51 → PHX 20:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2108 Southwest	HOU 06:10	PHX 07:01	6%	2%	2.0%	no record
WN 1744 Southwest	HOU 08:00	PHX 08:47	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2110 Southwest	HOU 12:21	PHX 13:08	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2111 Southwest	HOU 14:26	PHX 15:13	29%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2113 Southwest	HOU 22:35	PHX 23:23	30%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 2447 Southwest	HOU 19:51	PHX 20:37	30%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON