tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3529 at 10:15, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3529 Southwest HOU 10:15 PNS 11:59 14% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → PNS 12:41DL 1640 6h 41m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 6h 23m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43DL 2807 6h 26m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021 5h 40m 92% 70%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40 3h 25m Dallas DAL 20:35 → PNS 22:29WN 2956 6h 29m 99% 66%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:49 → PNS 14:47AA 2328 5h 18m 91% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON