Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3252 at 13:50, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3252 Southwest	HOU 13:50	RDU 17:43	19%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	5h 42m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:48 → RDU 17:22DL 2600	5h 42m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RDU 00:42 +1DL 2938	6h 25m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → RDU 21:59DL 3244	6h 35m	95%	68%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:30 → DAL 13:40WN 26	1h 35m Dallas	DAL 15:15 → RDU 19:04WN 1444	5h 34m	93%	64%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:45 → RDU 18:40AA 1888	8h 11m	100%	60%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:43 → RDU 21:34AA 979	7h 48m	92%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON