Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2119 at 15:35, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2119 Southwest	HOU 15:35	SDF 18:55	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:08 → DAL 08:19WN 4	1h 30m Dallas	DAL 09:49 → SDF 12:59WN 1490	4h 51m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	4h 51m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	6h 09m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	6h 09m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:54 → SDF 22:19DL 2842	6h 55m	95%	70%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:46AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:08 → SDF 15:19AA 2813	4h 50m	82%	52%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:48 → SDF 19:08AA 2049	5h 22m	82%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:55 → SDF 18:04AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	4h 18m	68%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON