tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 50m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 10h 25m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:33 → SEA 16:47AA 727 9h 18m 100% 58%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903 8h 42m 76% 53%
AmericanDetails → HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:38 → SEA 20:00AA 1483 9h 14m 92% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HOU 20:19 → DFW 21:35AA 3391 · flown by Envoy 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 6h 38m 71% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON