tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 10h 50m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823 8h 51m 94% 63%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 9h 19m 91% 60%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → SFO 15:03AA 2325 7h 34m 100% 58%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 19:33 → SFO 21:32DL 681 9h 08m 90% 52%
AmericanDetails → HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:17 → SFO 17:59AA 2810 7h 13m 89% 45%
AmericanDetails → HOU 20:19 → DFW 21:35AA 3391 · flown by Envoy 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → SFO 00:43 +1AA 446 6h 24m 91% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON