Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 244 at 17:55, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 244 Southwest	HOU 17:55	SLC 20:09	36%	9%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:08 → DAL 08:19WN 4	1h 26m Dallas	DAL 09:45 → SLC 11:34WN 4851	5h 26m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 10m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	7h 38m	92%	63%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40	3h 35m Dallas	DAL 20:45 → SLC 22:37WN 298	7h 37m	99%	60%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:17 → SLC 16:10AA 1456	7h 41m	100%	58%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	8h 09m	88%	57%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660	8h 13m	90%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:32 → SLC 13:24AA 1871	4h 55m	16%	10%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON