Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 09:29, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2123 Southwest	HOU 08:05	SMF 10:24	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	10h 29m	96%	65%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:45 → SMF 13:28AA 2078	5h 59m	83%	59%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:43 → SMF 18:20AA 651	7h 34m	89%	56%
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:05 → DAL 20:19WN 52	1h 41m Dallas	DAL 22:00 → SMF 23:45WN 3841	6h 40m	91%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 20:19 → DFW 21:35AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509	5h 40m	70%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON