tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 8h 31m 97% 71%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 08:43 → DAL 09:56WN 10 3h 32m Dallas DAL 13:28 → SNA 14:36WN 1228 7h 53m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:45 → SNA 16:02AA 2659 8h 33m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 10h 01m 96% 68%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 10h 20m 99% 65%
AmericanDetails → HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:32 → SNA 17:50AA 3223 7h 04m 89% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON