Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 183 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 183 HOU 07:30 → STL 09:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4790 HOU 17:05 → STL 19:12 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 183 Southwest	HOU 07:30	STL 09:38	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2149 Southwest	HOU 11:00	STL 13:07	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3445 Southwest	HOU 13:15	STL 15:22	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2614 Southwest	HOU 22:10	STL 00:18	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4790 Southwest	HOU 17:05	STL 19:12	29%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON