Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 378 at 08:00, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 378 Southwest	HOU 08:00	TUL 09:37	7%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:08 → DAL 08:19WN 4	51m Dallas	DAL 09:10 → TUL 10:30WN 2747	3h 22m	92%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	5h 56m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:30 → DAL 13:40WN 26	2h 25m Dallas	DAL 16:05 → TUL 17:25WN 555	4h 55m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186	5h 13m	87%	70%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:10 → TUL 15:27AA 2851	5h 58m	100%	66%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	6h 02m	88%	66%
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:05 → DAL 20:19WN 52	2h 06m Dallas	DAL 22:25 → TUL 23:45WN 2745	4h 40m	94%	64%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:27 → TUL 17:48AA 2830	5h 02m	89%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 20:19 → DFW 21:35AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	3h 28m	70%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON