Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2153 at 10:15, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2153 Southwest	HOU 10:15	VPS 12:04	15%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	4h 29m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170	5h 20m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 12m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	6h 25m	95%	74%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:46AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501	5h 14m	91%	61%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673	5h 52m	89%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	59m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	4h 18m	72%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON