Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1044 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–58%.

Safest bet that day UA 1044 IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 3136 IAH 18:47 → ORD 21:30 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1044 United Flight history →	IAH 05:04	ORD 07:59	8%	5%	2.4%	97%
WN 4638 Southwest	HOU 07:50	MDW 10:21	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 2616 United Flight history →	IAH 06:10	ORD 09:05	10%	5%	1.1%	88%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	IAH 07:24	ORD 10:20	12%	5%	0.8%	89%
UA 1617 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	ORD 11:01	12%	6%	0.8%	92%
AA 3106 American Flight history →	IAH 06:13	ORD 09:07	15%	7%	1.3%	89%
WN 2828 Southwest	HOU 11:50	MDW 14:19	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2124 United Flight history →	IAH 09:44	ORD 12:38	20%	8%	0.9%	86%
AA 1517 American	IAH 09:02	ORD 11:47	26%	9%	1.6%	no record
WN 4789 Southwest	HOU 22:30	MDW 01:00	28%	9%	1.2%	no record
UA 1752 United Flight history →	IAH 22:08	ORD 00:45	29%	10%	1.0%	71%
WN 2088 Southwest	HOU 19:06	MDW 21:35	29%	8%	1.5%	no record
UA 1691 United	IAH 11:59	ORD 14:48	30%	13%	1.7%	no record
WN 2103 Southwest	HOU 15:55	MDW 18:24	32%	9%	2.6%	no record
AA 2504 American Flight history →	IAH 11:00	ORD 13:42	35%	11%	4.2%	62%
UA 787 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	ORD 23:15	38%	16%	0.8%	72%
UA 1299 United	IAH 13:54	ORD 16:41	41%	17%	1.7%	no record
UA 2775 United	IAH 15:40	ORD 18:27	43%	20%	1.3%	no record
AA 3322 American Flight history →	IAH 14:16	ORD 17:12	45%	19%	2.3%	85%worse than usual
UA 2197 United Flight history →	IAH 18:44	ORD 21:40	45%	18%	0.9%	69%worse than usual
AA 2302 American	IAH 17:07	ORD 20:09	52%	25%	2.5%	no record
UA 2786 United	IAH 17:31	ORD 20:09	54%	23%	1.4%	no record
AA 2243 American	IAH 18:47	ORD 21:32	54%	22%	2.0%	no record
F9 3136 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 18:47	ORD 21:30	58%	23%	2.7%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON