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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 37 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4242 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 4242 HOU 05:35 → DAL 06:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2438 IAH 19:17 → DFW 20:32 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.

WN 4242 Southwest HOU 05:35 DAL 06:48 6% 2% 7.7% no record
WN 4 Southwest Flight history → HOU 07:08 DAL 08:19 7% 1% 1.9% 94%
WN 8 Southwest Flight history → HOU 07:58 DAL 09:11 7% 2% 1.8% 88%
WN 10 Southwest Flight history → HOU 08:43 DAL 09:56 10% 2% 1.5% 97%
AA 700 American Flight history → IAH 06:02 DFW 07:28 12% 7% 1.8% 90%
AA 2551 American Flight history → IAH 05:02 DFW 06:19 12% 8% 4.0% 90%
MQ 3729 Envoy HOU 06:11 DFW 07:45 12% 7% 6.3% no record
UA 358 United Flight history → IAH 07:23 DFW 08:50 15% 6% 0.9% 86%
WN 30 Southwest Flight history → HOU 13:38 DAL 14:53 16% 4% 1.2% 76%
WN 26 Southwest Flight history → HOU 12:30 DAL 13:40 17% 3% 1.3% 85%
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history → HOU 09:29 DFW 10:45 17% 6% 2.1% 94%worse than usual
AA 3026 American Flight history → IAH 06:54 DFW 08:13 18% 8% 1.7% 70%
MQ 3477 Envoy IAH 12:26 DFW 13:58 19% 6% 1.0% no record
UA 1686 United IAH 08:24 DFW 09:45 19% 7% 0.9% no record
OO 4924 SkyWest HOU 11:34 DFW 13:07 21% 12% 2.3% no record
WN 40 Southwest Flight history → HOU 16:00 DAL 17:10 22% 5% 1.3% 75%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history → IAH 08:54 DFW 10:07 23% 5% 1.0% 81%
WN 34 Southwest Flight history → HOU 14:40 DAL 15:50 24% 5% 1.3% 80%
UA 1183 United Flight history → IAH 21:37 DFW 22:59 24% 9% 0.8% 62%
WN 62 Southwest Flight history → HOU 21:50 DAL 23:03 25% 6% 1.1% 81%
WN 52 Southwest Flight history → HOU 19:05 DAL 20:19 25% 7% 1.1% 75%
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → HOU 12:46 DFW 14:09 26% 12% 2.4% 74%
WN 54 Southwest Flight history → HOU 20:32 DAL 21:47 26% 6% 1.1% 72%
UA 1388 United Flight history → IAH 14:47 DFW 16:23 26% 10% 0.7% 77%
MQ 3908 Envoy IAH 20:18 DFW 21:52 28% 7% 1.2% no record
AA 1407 American Flight history → IAH 10:13 DFW 11:29 29% 9% 0.9% 86%worse than usual
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history → HOU 20:19 DFW 21:35 30% 6% 2.2% 56%
AA 1397 American IAH 14:16 DFW 15:40 31% 11% 0.9% no record
OO 6252 SkyWest HOU 18:21 DFW 19:57 31% 11% 3.2% no record
UA 1599 United IAH 17:03 DFW 18:31 31% 12% 0.8% no record
UA 1949 United Flight history → IAH 19:59 DFW 21:25 33% 11% 0.8% 71%
OH 5576 PSA IAH 16:11 DFW 17:34 34% 12% 1.0% no record
UA 1535 United Flight history → IAH 18:05 DFW 19:31 34% 12% 0.8% 71%
AA 9754 American HOU 17:03 DFW 18:34 40% 11% 1.4% no record
AA 9748 American IAH 17:24 DFW 18:43 43% 14% 1.0% no record
AA 2438 American Flight history → IAH 19:17 DFW 20:32 43% 12% 0.9% 71%worse than usual
UA 4024 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:05 DFW 13:34 20% 11% 0.0% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON