Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1378 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–49%.

Safest bet that day WN 1378 HOU 07:00 → LGA 11:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 282 IAH 18:17 → JFK 23:00 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1378 Southwest	HOU 07:00	LGA 11:26	8%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 1417 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:33	11%	4%	1.0%	88%
UA 1697 United Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:29	12%	4%	0.8%	87%
UA 1886 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	EWR 11:59	12%	4%	0.9%	88%
UA 1797 United Flight history →	IAH 06:00	EWR 10:33	12%	4%	1.1%	93%
UA 1143 United	IAH 08:00	LGA 12:31	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 1449 Delta	IAH 10:53	LGA 15:21	23%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 678 United Flight history →	IAH 09:48	LGA 14:29	25%	7%	0.8%	77%
WN 2067 Southwest	HOU 10:10	LGA 14:35	25%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:48	EWR 14:27	27%	8%	0.9%	79%
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	27%	9%	0.7%	66%
UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	28%	8%	0.9%	76%
DL 1368 Delta	IAH 14:01	LGA 18:28	29%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	30%	10%	0.8%	73%
DL 1438 Delta	IAH 18:39	LGA 23:07	30%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2495 United	IAH 17:23	LGA 22:14	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:45	EWR 18:29	31%	14%	0.8%	74%
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	31%	11%	0.7%	61%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	31%	10%	0.8%	72%
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:18	EWR 23:00	32%	11%	0.9%	66%
B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:53	JFK 16:33	32%	11%	1.0%	50%
UA 775 United	IAH 14:44	LGA 19:36	32%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 4684 Southwest	HOU 15:00	LGA 19:25	33%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 2682 United Flight history →	IAH 18:30	LGA 22:58	36%	10%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
WN 3483 Southwest	HOU 17:30	LGA 22:05	37%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	EWR 21:29	39%	13%	0.9%	64%
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	39%	15%	0.8%	59%
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	49%	16%	1.2%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON