Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2078 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2078 HOU 05:00 → MCO 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2418 IAH 20:22 → MCO 23:53 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2078 Southwest	HOU 05:00	MCO 08:23	5%	2%	5.0%	no record
WN 2451 Southwest	HOU 07:00	MCO 10:23	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2245 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	MCO 10:51	10%	4%	0.8%	94%
WN 4685 Southwest	HOU 10:07	MCO 13:30	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 2310 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	MCO 13:00	20%	6%	0.8%	86%
WN 2083 Southwest	HOU 20:40	MCO 00:03	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	26%	8%	1.4%	86%worse than usual
UA 1571 United Flight history →	IAH 17:09	MCO 20:48	28%	9%	0.9%	82%worse than usual
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	30%	8%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
WN 1062 Southwest	HOU 18:00	MCO 21:23	30%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	MCO 21:58	30%	9%	1.0%	80%
WN 2612 Southwest	HOU 14:33	MCO 17:57	32%	9%	0.8%	no record
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:16	MCO 16:53	34%	11%	1.3%	77%worse than usual
F9 2418 Frontier	IAH 20:22	MCO 23:53	35%	12%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON