Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4362 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 4362 HOU 05:21 → BWI 09:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3068 IAH 16:21 → BWI 20:36 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4362 Southwest	HOU 05:21	BWI 09:39	7%	2%	4.8%	no record
UA 512 United Flight history →	IAH 07:44	DCA 11:40	10%	3%	0.8%	95%
UA 1549 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	IAD 11:28	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 321 Southwest	HOU 08:24	DCA 12:38	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
YV 4031 Mesa	IAH 09:43	DCA 14:00	17%	5%	1.6%	no record
WN 2445 Southwest	HOU 10:08	BWI 14:26	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1720 United Flight history →	IAH 12:16	BWI 16:30	21%	6%	0.8%	81%
UA 3910 United	IAH 10:11	IAD 14:21	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 179 Southwest	HOU 12:45	BWI 17:03	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 688 United	IAH 14:23	IAD 18:49	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	24%	7%	0.9%	75%
UA 2366 United Flight history →	IAH 12:18	IAD 16:35	25%	5%	0.7%	82%
OH 5496 PSA	IAH 10:30	DCA 14:32	25%	8%	1.3%	no record
UA 1178 United	IAH 14:58	IAD 19:20	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2388 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	IAD 20:46	26%	8%	0.7%	70%
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	28%	9%	1.0%	69%
WN 4936 Southwest	HOU 20:35	BWI 00:51	28%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 3443 Southwest	HOU 19:50	DCA 23:53	28%	9%	1.1%	no record
UA 1373 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	IAD 22:43	28%	8%	0.7%	73%
UA 1968 United	IAH 20:16	IAD 00:13	28%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	29%	7%	1.0%	70%
WN 2031 Southwest	HOU 14:22	DCA 18:25	29%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 8183 United	IAH 18:22	BWI 22:25	30%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 235 United	IAH 17:03	DCA 21:24	30%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 8150 United	IAH 18:13	DCA 22:33	31%	9%	1.0%	no record
OH 5589 PSA	IAH 17:22	DCA 21:24	34%	12%	1.9%	no record
WN 1821 Southwest	HOU 17:15	BWI 21:17	37%	9%	0.8%	no record
F9 3068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:21	BWI 20:36	42%	12%	1.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON