Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4645 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 12:36	DTW 14:26	15%	6%	1.3%	71%
DL 4643 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 17:17	DTW 19:07	22%	8%	1.3%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 09:42 → DTW 12:06AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	5h 42m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 27m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:49 → ATL 15:18DL 2973	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	7h 24m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:24 → ATL 12:54DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	7h 03m	98%	75%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	1h 32m Washington	DCA 09:22 → DTW 11:06AA 5660 · flown by PSA	4h 36m	92%	73%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:58AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 21m Charlotte	CLT 11:19 → DTW 13:06AA 1683	5h 11m	91%	73%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	2h 14m Charlotte	CLT 14:15 → DTW 16:07AA 1134	6h 07m	94%	69%
Delta Details →	HPN 15:26 → MSP 17:23DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 19:46 → DTW 22:32DL 1484	7h 06m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON