Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: B6 813 at 09:49 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 813 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 09:49	FLL 12:48	22%	8%	1.7%	80%
B6 613 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 21:00	FLL 23:57	41%	17%	1.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063	6h 51m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:24 → ATL 12:54DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	8h 16m	98%	64%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:58AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 10:59 → FLL 13:01AA 2585	5h 06m	88%	64%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:36 → DTW 14:26DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	1h 30m Detroit	DTW 15:56 → FLL 19:00DL 1037	6h 24m	90%	63%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:49 → ATL 15:18DL 2973	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670	6h 54m	98%	62%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	2h 39m Charlotte	CLT 14:40 → FLL 16:52AA 2397	6h 52m	96%	58%
Delta Details →	HPN 17:17 → DTW 19:07DL 4643 · flown by Endeavor	1h 37m Detroit	DTW 20:44 → FLL 23:42DL 2296	6h 25m	82%	57%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:50 → ATL 21:20DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	5h 49m	84%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON