Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 2695 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day B6 2695 HPN 07:30 → MCO 10:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 595 HPN 16:00 → MCO 18:53 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2695 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 07:30	MCO 10:14	8%	4%	1.5%	89%
B6 195 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 20:30	MCO 23:15	33%	16%	1.8%	68%
B6 595 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 16:00	MCO 18:53	36%	16%	1.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON