Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4693 at 15:26, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4693 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 15:26	MSP 17:23	22%	8%	1.3%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind White Plains). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 01m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:24 → ATL 12:54DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	6h 42m	94%	75%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 15:09 → MSP 16:59AA 2140	7h 59m	97%	72%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:58AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 11:17 → MSP 12:59AA 1671	6h 04m	91%	72%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:49 → ATL 15:18DL 2973	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	6h 29m	91%	68%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:36 → DTW 14:26DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	1h 54m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 36m	93%	67%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:50 → ATL 21:20DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	6h 49m	87%	65%
Delta Details →	HPN 17:17 → DTW 19:07DL 4643 · flown by Endeavor	59m Detroit	DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303	4h 43m	78%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HPN 18:59 → CLT 21:05AA 5070 · flown by PSA	57m Charlotte	CLT 22:02 → MSP 23:41AA 2176	5h 42m	67%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON