Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3496 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 3496 HPN 07:10 → ORD 08:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4112 HPN 17:34 → ORD 19:29 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3496 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 07:10	ORD 08:51	9%	3%	1.5%	89%
AA 3751 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 06:24	ORD 08:05	9%	3%	1.4%	94%
AA 3812 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 12:00	ORD 13:38	26%	10%	3.1%	80%
AA 3808 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 16:39	ORD 18:29	39%	18%	6.1%	72%worse than usual
AA 4112 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 17:34	ORD 19:29	41%	20%	5.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON