Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: B6 1551 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 1551 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 06:30	RSW 09:23	8%	3%	2.2%	95%
B6 1251 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 12:56	RSW 16:13	22%	7%	2.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	5h 42m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:24 → ATL 12:54DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	6h 20m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:49 → ATL 15:18DL 2973	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	6h 06m	98%	68%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:58AA 5403 · flown by PSA	59m Charlotte	CLT 10:57 → RSW 13:02AA 2018	5h 07m	87%	65%
American Details →	HPN 07:10 → ORD 08:51AA 3496 · flown by Envoy	3h 21m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → RSW 16:13AA 2561	9h 03m	98%	64%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:50 → ATL 21:20DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	5h 33m	83%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HPN 16:39 → ORD 18:29AA 3808 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → RSW 23:29AA 3238	6h 50m	61%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON