Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 1447 at 06:26, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1447 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 06:26	TPA 09:30	10%	4%	1.1%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	5h 00m	93%	79%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	2h 29m Washington	DCA 10:19 → TPA 12:57AA 3126	6h 27m	95%	76%
American Details →	HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 09:23 → TPA 13:14AA 2920	6h 50m	96%	73%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:58AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 12:54 → TPA 14:49AA 2915	6h 54m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	HPN 10:24 → ATL 12:54DL 4930 · flown by Endeavor	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	6h 34m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:49 → ATL 15:18DL 2973	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457	7h 05m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:50 → ATL 21:20DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	5h 39m	87%	64%
American Details →	HPN 10:00 → CLT 12:01AA 5431 · flown by PSA	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 15:28 → TPA 17:25AA 545	7h 25m	97%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	HPN 17:17 → DTW 19:07DL 4643 · flown by Endeavor	52m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355	5h 18m	74%	54%
American Details →	HPN 17:34 → ORD 19:29AA 4112 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 20:29 → TPA 00:19 +1AA 353	6h 45m	59%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON