Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2556 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2556 HSV 05:30 → ATL 07:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest DL 3065 HSV 18:26 → ATL 20:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2556 Delta Flight history →	HSV 05:30	ATL 07:31	6%	4%	0.9%	99%
DL 3036 Delta Flight history →	HSV 08:50	ATL 10:50	8%	4%	0.8%	93%
DL 3009 Delta Flight history →	HSV 07:12	ATL 09:17	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 1708 Delta Flight history →	HSV 13:11	ATL 15:20	12%	4%	0.7%	93%
DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	HSV 12:35	ATL 14:41	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	HSV 16:20	ATL 18:25	16%	5%	0.8%	82%
DL 3065 Delta	HSV 18:26	ATL 20:32	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 4760 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 14:50	ATL 16:57	44%	24%	0.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON