Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 4640 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4640 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HSV 08:00	DEN 10:20	12%	5%	0.7%	89%
UA 5393 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HSV 15:35	DEN 17:55	30%	10%	0.8%	81%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Huntsville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HSV 05:52 → DTW 08:46DL 5382 · flown by Endeavor	3h 56m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	8h 53m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	HSV 05:30 → ATL 07:31DL 2556	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995	6h 35m	95%	80%
American Details →	HSV 05:33 → CLT 08:02AA 6071 · flown by Piedmont	1h 33m Charlotte	CLT 09:35 → DEN 11:11AA 2859	6h 38m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	HSV 07:12 → ATL 09:17DL 3009	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 48m	99%	78%
United Details →	HSV 08:30 → IAD 11:29UA 4240 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 19m Dulles	IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587	7h 12m	91%	75%
American Details →	HSV 07:22 → CLT 09:54AA 5393 · flown by PSA	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:56 → DEN 13:36AA 1662	7h 14m	95%	74%
United Details →	HSV 16:30 → IAH 18:43UA 4893 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 26m Houston	IAH 22:09 → DEN 23:33UA 685	8h 03m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	HSV 08:50 → ATL 10:50DL 3036	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	7h 08m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	HSV 13:43 → ORD 15:54UA 4469 · flown by GoJet	46m Chicago	ORD 16:40 → DEN 18:34UA 1882	5h 51m	37%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON