Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: G7 4474 at 07:22 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–39%.

Safest bet that day G7 4474 HSV 07:22 → ORD 09:32 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4469 HSV 13:43 → ORD 15:54 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4474 GoJet	HSV 07:22	ORD 09:32	17%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 6464 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HSV 07:38	ORD 10:00	17%	7%	1.3%	91%
AA 6352 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HSV 12:20	ORD 14:35	37%	17%	2.9%	75%worse than usual
UA 4469 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	HSV 13:43	ORD 15:54	39%	17%	5.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON