Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2070 United	IAD 17:51	ABQ 20:19	23%	8%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:37 → ABQ 10:03DL 8817	6h 03m	91%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → ABQ 10:03DL 1004	6h 03m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109	7h 10m	97%	78%
United Details →	IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434	3h 19m San Francisco	SFO 18:46 → ABQ 22:29UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest	11h 49m	98%	78%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → ABQ 11:34AA 3586 · flown by Envoy	7h 20m	98%	77%
United Details →	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:58UA 1524	1h 06m Houston	IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa	6h 47m	89%	77%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 42m Denver	DEN 13:47 → ABQ 15:19UA 1594	7h 06m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:39 → ATL 14:30DL 1444	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 17:54 → ABQ 19:14DL 8790	8h 35m	98%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAD 15:15 → DFW 17:34AA 524	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:22 → ABQ 19:16AA 2698	6h 01m	65%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON