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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:46, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 18:46 → MSP 20:56DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 10h 13m 91% 73%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015 3h 55m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 13h 25m 99% 72%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 06:03 → SEA 08:48AS 409 3h 03m Seattle SEA 11:51 → ANC 14:34AS 1333 12h 31m 100% 71%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 09:58 → SEA 12:24AS 375 3h 31m Seattle SEA 15:55 → ANC 18:34AS 99 12h 36m 100% 69%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09AS 737 1h 43m Seattle SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:25 +1AS 703 11h 11m 90% 59%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 29m Denver DEN 18:58 → ANC 22:27UA 280 11h 52m 95% 54%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331 1h 33m Chicago ORD 16:02 → ANC 19:05UA 461 9h 50m 85% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09AS 737 58m Seattle SEA 22:07 → ANC 00:39 +1AS 1471 10h 25m 64% 42%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395 55m Denver DEN 18:58 → ANC 22:27UA 280 10h 31m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON