tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 55m 99% 74%
FrontierDetails → IAD 05:58 → LAS 08:06F9 4277 3h 08m Las Vegas LAS 11:14 → BUR 12:37F9 4107 9h 39m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 51m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 83% 71%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 2h 35m San Francisco SFO 18:02 → BUR 19:28UA 2001 9h 48m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:16 → BUR 11:34AA 1208 8h 20m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 20:47 → BUR 22:18UA 794 10h 27m 98% 65%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 06:03 → SEA 08:48AS 409 1h 25m Seattle SEA 10:13 → BUR 12:48AS 1395 9h 45m 93% 63%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 1h 17m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → BUR 11:58UA 8211 8h 28m 93% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON