Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4364 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:21	CAE 19:09	18%	7%	1.5%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → CAE 11:14DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor	5h 16m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:00 → CAE 12:59DL 2944	4h 32m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → CAE 15:06DL 3193	4h 45m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	5h 36m	95%	72%
United Details →	IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252	2h 02m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → CAE 17:05UA 4523 · flown by GoJet	6h 34m	97%	72%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → CAE 13:57AA 5437 · flown by PSA	7h 43m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:39 → ATL 14:30DL 1444	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 17:33 → CAE 18:40DL 2193	6h 01m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:45 → ATL 17:36DL 2135	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 20:09 → CAE 21:16DL 3008	5h 31m	93%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON