Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2335 at 08:12 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2335 IAD 08:12 → CLE 09:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YV 4025 IAD 17:36 → CLE 19:02 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2335 United	IAD 08:12	CLE 09:38	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1709 United Flight history →	IAD 12:45	CLE 14:06	11%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 8131 United	IAD 23:02	CLE 00:32	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
YV 4025 Mesa	IAD 17:36	CLE 19:02	18%	6%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON