Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4487 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 09:00	CVG 10:45	16%	14%	0.0%	84%
UA 4521 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:25	CVG 19:08	20%	9%	1.9%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → CVG 11:28DL 3160	5h 28m	98%	86%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 12:59 → CVG 15:30UA 4388 · flown by GoJet	7h 15m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	6h 44m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703	7h 02m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	6h 20m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:16DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	4h 06m	93%	76%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	6h 32m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → CVG 09:54DL 5259 · flown by Endeavor	3h 54m	91%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON