Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1561 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1561 IAD 06:27 → DEN 08:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 395 IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1561 United	IAD 06:27	DEN 08:16	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1865 United Flight history →	IAD 10:13	DEN 12:05	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
UA 797 United	IAD 08:14	DEN 10:00	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1587 United Flight history →	IAD 12:48	DEN 14:42	15%	6%	0.8%	92%
UA 495 United Flight history →	IAD 22:23	DEN 00:30	16%	5%	0.7%	84%
UA 1126 United Flight history →	IAD 14:35	DEN 16:29	26%	8%	0.8%	82%
UA 599 United Flight history →	IAD 17:41	DEN 19:45	32%	10%	0.8%	74%
UA 395 United Flight history →	IAD 15:56	DEN 18:03	33%	10%	0.8%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	50m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	5h 39m	88%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON