Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2617 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2617 IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1863 IAD 19:35 → DFW 21:54 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	8%	4%	1.1%	85%
UA 2471 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	DFW 10:53	8%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:41	DFW 15:05	15%	6%	0.7%	79%
F9 4559 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 12:21	DFW 14:48	22%	9%	1.3%	70%
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	23%	8%	0.8%	72%
AA 524 American Flight history →	IAD 15:15	DFW 17:34	24%	7%	1.0%	83%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	IAD 19:35	DFW 21:54	25%	8%	1.1%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON