tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 13h 43m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 13h 20m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 14h 07m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:18 → LAX 10:37UA 1734 2h 36m Los Angeles LAX 13:13 → HNL 16:17UA 1224 13h 59m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:55 → SLC 09:33DL 432 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 13h 24m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:36 → LAX 15:08UA 1689 1h 57m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 13h 08m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 15h 03m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 2h 36m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 13h 43m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → IAD 17:29 → SEA 20:04AS 737 46m Seattle SEA 20:50 → HNL 23:49AS 268 12h 20m 42% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON