Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2084 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2084 IAD 08:32 → JAX 10:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 293 IAD 17:53 → JAX 20:08 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2084 United Flight history →	IAD 08:32	JAX 10:42	10%	4%	0.8%	90%
UA 4063 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAD 12:45	JAX 15:13	15%	6%	1.3%	89%
UA 293 United Flight history →	IAD 17:53	JAX 20:08	20%	8%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON