Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1323 at 09:08 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1323 IAD 09:08 → LAS 11:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2209 IAD 18:11 → LAS 20:24 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1323 United Flight history →	IAD 09:08	LAS 11:20	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 2156 United Flight history →	IAD 13:00	LAS 15:09	17%	5%	0.6%	91%
F9 4277 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 05:58	LAS 08:06	20%	8%	0.7%	66%
UA 2209 United	IAD 18:11	LAS 20:24	24%	7%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 31m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	92%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	7h 35m	94%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON