Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1734 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1734 IAD 08:18 → LAX 10:36 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 2276 IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:25 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:18	LAX 10:36	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 12:36	LAX 15:08	13%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 2011 United	IAD 06:57	LAX 09:09	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 657 United	IAD 09:25	LAX 11:38	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	19%	5%	0.8%	89%
UA 1385 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	LAX 00:57	21%	6%	0.9%	84%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:25	24%	6%	0.8%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 45m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	7h 20m	91%	76%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 21m Denver	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	7h 44m	96%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON