tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3505 at 12:47 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3505 Republic IAD 12:47 MCI 14:41 7% 3% 0.9% no record
UA 1165 United IAD 18:09 MCI 20:02 18% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → MCI 11:29DL 1349 6h 29m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:58UA 1524 3h 37m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 9h 07m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 6h 11m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826 4h 44m 92% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884 3h 07m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 6h 44m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 02m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 09m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:33 → MCI 12:21AA 1376 7h 07m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498 46m Newark EWR 14:47 → MCI 17:02UA 3436 · flown by Republic 5h 27m 59% 46%
AmericanDetails → IAD 19:35 → DFW 21:54AA 1863 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036 5h 48m 70% 42%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599 55m Denver DEN 20:40 → MCI 23:25UA 1596 6h 44m 62% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON