Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 1073 at 08:45, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1073 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MIA 11:35	14%	5%	4.3%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 28m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 57m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 09:07 → MIA 13:41DL 793	7h 41m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 48m	95%	67%
United Details →	IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396	1h 41m Newark	EWR 11:32 → MIA 14:39UA 2295	6h 14m	98%	61%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	4h 40m	84%	61%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	6h 34m	98%	59%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	1h 46m Detroit	DTW 14:33 → MIA 17:40DL 2548	6h 30m	100%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	1h 11m Newark	EWR 20:21 → MIA 23:14UA 791	5h 32m	56%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON