Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2253 at 09:08 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2253 IAD 09:08 → MSY 11:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 251 IAD 18:11 → MSY 20:06 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2253 United Flight history →	IAD 09:08	MSY 11:03	6%	3%	0.8%	92%
UA 251 United Flight history →	IAD 18:11	MSY 20:06	19%	7%	1.4%	86%
UA 4061 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:40	MSY 10:28	0%	0%	0.0%	100%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	4h 10m	84%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON