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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 8h 01m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 82%
FrontierDetails → IAD 05:58 → LAS 08:06F9 4277 1h 50m Las Vegas LAS 09:56 → ONT 11:16F9 1283 8h 18m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 10h 18m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 26m San Francisco SFO 18:53 → ONT 20:30UA 2478 10h 50m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 1h 28m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 8h 42m 95% 70%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 09:58 → SEA 12:24AS 375 3h 02m Seattle SEA 15:26 → ONT 18:07AS 592 11h 09m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 10h 46m 98% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON