Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 780 United Flight history →	IAD 17:40	PDX 20:19	28%	8%	0.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41DL 2415	7h 41m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 58m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 36m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	7h 55m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 00m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015	3h 52m Seattle	SEA 13:37 → PDX 14:48DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest	10h 48m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09AS 737	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	9h 08m	94%	76%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 22m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	8h 00m	96%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 17:26 → DTW 19:15DL 1787	49m Detroit	DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913	7h 22m	75%	57%
Alaska Details →	IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09AS 737	54m Seattle	SEA 22:03 → PDX 23:02AS 1495	7h 48m	61%	40%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → PDX 22:41UA 2243	7h 59m	71%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON