Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 709 United Flight history →	IAD 08:56	PHX 10:47	9%	4%	0.7%	99%
UA 1938 United Flight history →	IAD 17:50	PHX 19:46	21%	8%	0.7%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 43m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	9h 03m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → PHX 16:41DL 2442	12h 41m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 44m	91%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → PHX 14:18DL 366	8h 51m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	7h 57m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 34m	95%	75%
United Details →	IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396	3h 11m Newark	EWR 13:02 → PHX 15:15UA 370	9h 50m	99%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587	53m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	6h 47m	74%	50%
United Details →	IAD 16:12 → SFO 18:56UA 796	46m San Francisco	SFO 19:42 → PHX 21:43UA 1375	8h 31m	62%	39%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	1h 09m Newark	EWR 20:19 → PHX 22:36UA 2321	7h 54m	54%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON