Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day G7 4443 IAD 08:20 → ROC 09:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4871 IAD 17:43 → ROC 19:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4443 GoJet	IAD 08:20	ROC 09:40	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 4563 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	IAD 12:45	ROC 14:05	12%	3%	1.1%	70%
YV 6114 Mesa	IAD 22:38	ROC 00:02	16%	6%	1.8%	no record
UA 4871 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 17:43	ROC 19:18	16%	5%	1.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON