tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1789 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1789 United Flight history → IAD 08:20 SAT 10:54 7% 3% 0.6% 94%
UA 1869 United Flight history → IAD 17:45 SAT 20:22 18% 6% 0.8% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 49m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 6h 11m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:58UA 1524 3h 54m Houston IAH 14:52 → SAT 16:12UA 2030 8h 32m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:25 → EWR 09:51UA 2396 2h 12m Newark EWR 12:03 → SAT 15:04UA 515 7h 39m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 50m Detroit DTW 08:25 → SAT 10:34DL 788 5h 34m 87% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 5h 49m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 39m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 7h 42m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884 54m Detroit DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458 5h 41m 90% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 15:15 → DFW 17:34AA 524 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → SAT 19:45AA 2368 5h 30m 68% 39%
AmericanDetails → IAD 19:35 → DFW 21:54AA 1863 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599 5h 23m 72% 38%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 1h 08m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 6h 15m 60% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON